CSHOR ENSO Science Symposium

CSHOR ENSO Science Symposium Hobart 29 – 31 January 2019

CSHOR gathered over 55 ENSO experts and students in Hobart over a 3-day symposium to address important scientific questions regarding the reliability of current modelling and observational tools, and what advances are required to improve projections of ENSO in a changing climate. The presentations are listed below. A meeting report titled, ‘Understanding ENSO in a Changing Climate’, is published on EOS.ORG – Earth & Space Science News at this link.

The field of ENSO research is rapidly progressing and it is necessary to re-assess the state of ENSO science.  ENSO significantly impacts our climate, ecosystems, economy and society on a global scale. An improved understanding of its dynamics, evolution, predictability, teleconnection and impact in a climate that is undergoing change is critical to manage risks and resources.  The character of ENSO and the frequency of extreme events may change on a warming planet. Just a couple of years ago an extreme El Niño with major global climatic consequences occurred and one may wonder when the next big one will arrive.

CSHOR ENSO Science Symposium 31 January 2019

CSHOR Writing Session for AGU ENSO Monograph Authors 1 – 2 February 2019

The Symposium was followed by a 2-day writing session for authors of an upcoming AGU Monograph titled, “ENSO in a Changing Climate”.

Symposium Program

29-31 January 2019, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) Lecture Theatre, Hobart TASMANIA.

(Scientific committee: Wenju Cai, Mike McPhaden, Agus Santoso. Organising committee: Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Ben Ng, Leonie Wyld)

Tuesday 29 January

9.30-10.45   Introduction | Chair: Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso (notetaker: Ben Ng)

9.30: Opening | Wenju Cai & Leonie Wyld

9.40: The impact of global warming on ENSO is clearer now than ever before (keynote) | Scott Power

10.10: El Niño and marine heatwaves (flash) | Neil Holbrook

10.15: Pan-tropical climate interactions | Wenju Cai

10.45-11.15 Morning tea

11.15-13.00 Warm Water Volume and Stochastic Wind | Chair: Xuebin Zhang & Malte Stuecker (notetaker: Catherine Ganter)

11.15: Update on the Evolving 2018-19 El Nino | Mike McPhaden

11.35: Evolution of ocean heat content related to ENSO | Kevin Trenberth

11.55: Diabatic Contributions to Warm Water Volume Variability over ENSO Events | Ryan Holmes

12.15: The Nature of the Stochastic Wind Forcing of ENSO | AntoniettaCapotondi

12.35: A simple theory for the modulation of Tropical Instability Waves by ENSO and the Annual Cycle | Julien Boucharel

13.00-14.00 Lunch

14.00-15.30 ENSO Prediction | Chair: Mat Collins & Jong-Seong Kug (notetaker: Giovanni Liguori)

14.00: Multi-year prediction of ENSO | Jing-Jia Luo

14.20: ENSO predictability in empirical models of tropical air-sea interactions | Harun Rashid

14.40: Impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface conditions on the predictive skill of ENSO (flash) |Jun-Young Choi

14.45: A high-latitude North Pacific trigger for extreme El Niño events | Hyun-Su Jo

15.05: Remarks by Blair Trewin (AR6 chapter 2 lead author)

15.15: Discussions

15.30-16.00 Afternoon tea

16.00-18.30 Factors affecting ENSO evolution | Chair: Dietmar Dommenget & Janet Sprintall (notetaker: Alex Sen Gupta)

16.00: The role of Indonesian Throughflow in the onset and development of the latest El Niño events | Dongliang Yuan

16.20: Some Issues Related to Inter-basin Teleconnection between Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO | Tim Li

16.40: Freshwater flux and ocean chlorophyll produce nonlinear feedbacks on ENSO in the tropical Pacific | Rong-Hua Zhang

17.00: Synergy of satellite and in-situ wind measurements to support ENSO research and TPOS2020 | Tong (Tony) Lee (introduction by Antonietta Capotondi)

17.20: Discussion

18.30: Close

19.30: Symposium dinner – Mezethes Greek Taverna, 77 Salamanca Pl, Battery Point TAS 7004.

Wednesday 30 January

9.00-10.45 ENSO Dynamics | Chair: Antonietta Capotondi & Rong-Hua Zhang (notetaker: Christina Karamperidou)

9.00: Dynamic Factors for ENSO’s Amplitude, Periodicity, Phase-locking, Asymmetry and Rectification onto Mean State (keynote) | Fei-Fei Jin

9.30: Nonlinear recharge oscillator model and its application | Soon-Il An

9.50: The relationship between the Pacific Meridional Mode, Central Pacific ENSO, and Pacific decadal variability | Malte Stuecker

10.10: Separating the North and South Pacific Meridional Modes contributions to ENSO and tropical decadal variability | Giovanni Liguori

10.30: Role of long-term Indian Ocean warming in modulating tropical atmospheric circulation (flash)| Shreya Dhame

10.35: Decomposition of the Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies by using MEEMD, is that worth it? (flash)| Arnold Sullivan

10.45-11.15 Morning tea

11.15-12.45 Low-frequency variability | Chair: Jing-Jia Luo & Neil Holbrook (notetaker: Ryan Holmes)

11.15: Tropical decadal variability induced by rectification of ENSO | Jong-Seong Kug

11.35: The Orthogonal PDO and ENSO Indices | Xianyao Chen

11.55: East Wind Anomaly in the Tropical and Mid-latitude Pacific in the Past Three Decades

| Xichen Li

12.15: What’s the role of Atlantic trans-basin forcing in Pacific decadal variability? | Kewei Lyu

  1. 35: Discussion

12.45-13.45 Lunch

13.45-15.45 ENSO under change and associated uncertainties | Chair: Scott Power & Guojian Wang (notetaker: Sarah Perry)

13.45: Recent progress in understanding ENSO SST response to greenhouse warming | Wenju Cai

14.15: Intensification of ENSO-induced rainfall variability in the slow oceanic response to global warming | Xiao-Tong Zheng

14.35: Changes of ENSO variability in the future climate of the Pacific | Christophe Menkes

14.55: Tropical Pacific climate change in the framework of the ENSO Recharge-Oscillator | Dietmar Dommenget

15.15: Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs | Neil Holbrook

15.35: Discussion

15.45-16.15   Afternoon tea

16.15-18.30 ENSO and greenhouse warming | Chair: Tim Li & Yun Yang (notetaker: Peter van Rensch)

16.15: Linking past, present and future ENSO variability (keynote) | Axel Timmermann

16.45: Weakened Atlantic Niño-Pacific Teleconnection under Greenhouse Warming | Fan Jia

17.05: Inter-basin SST gradient change responsible for the weakening of the North Tropical Atlantic-ENSO relationship due to global warming | Yoo-Geun Ham

17.25: Can the Arctic sea ice loss induce an El Nino-like warming? | Sang-Wook Yeh

17.45: Key Role of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the Changes of the Aleutian Low Mean-state and Variability under Greenhouse Warming | Bolan Gan

18.05: Discussion

18.30: Close

Thursday 31 January

9.00-10.30 ENSO impacts and their changing nature | Chair: Kevin Trenberth & Yoo-Geun Ham (notetaker: Agus Santoso)

9.00: Multi-resolution hierarchical modeling of ENSO flavors and their impacts (keynote) | Christina Karamperidou

9.30: Regional changes to the remote impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation | Sarah Perry

9.50: Mechanisms for Changing ENSO-Rainfall Teleconnections in the Tropics | Mat Collins

10.10: Understanding the relationship of ENSO and SAM in the present and future climate | Eun-Pa Lim

10.30-11.00 Morning tea

11.00-12.30 Atmospheric teleconnection processes | Chair: Sang-Wook Yeh & Julien Boucharel (notetaker: Shreya Dhame)

11.00: ENSO and tropical cyclone variability (keynote)| Johnny Chan

11.30: The inconsistent teleconnection of strong El Nino events to east Australian spring rainfall | Peter van Rensch

11.50: ENSO seasonality and implications for rainfall teleconnections in CMIP models | Andrea Taschetto

12.10: North Tropical Atlantic climate variability and model biases | Yun Yang

12.30-13.30 Lunch

13.30-15.30 Indo-Pacific teleconnection and oceanic impact | Chair: Tony Lee & Dong-Liang Yuan (notetaker: Janet Sprintall)

13.30: Pacific influences on the meridional temperature transport of the Indian Ocean | Ming Feng

13.50: Contributions of seasonality, remote forcing and local forcing to the mean state of the Indonesian seas | Océane Richet

14.10: ENSO-related Global Ocean Heat Content Variations | Xuebin Zhang

14.30: El Niño revisited: the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the world’s largest tuna fisheries | Christophe Menkes

14.50: Discussion

15.00: TPOS2020 Discussion convened by Tony Lee & Shayne McGregor

15.30: Close

15.30 Afternoon tea

More about CSHOR ENSO research

Find out more about CSHOR ENSO and the IOD research on the project page.