CSHOR ENSO Science Symposium

CSHOR gathered over 55 ENSO experts and students in Hobart over a 3-day symposium to address important scientific questions regarding the reliability of current modelling and observational tools, and what advances are required to improve projections of ENSO in a changing climate. The presentations are listed below. A meeting report titled, ‘Understanding ENSO in a Changing Climate’, is published on EOS.ORG – Earth & Space Science News at this link.

The field of ENSO research is rapidly progressing and it is necessary to re-assess the state of ENSO science.  ENSO significantly impacts our climate, ecosystems, economy and society on a global scale. An improved understanding of its dynamics, evolution, predictability, teleconnection and impact in a climate that is undergoing change is critical to manage risks and resources.  The character of ENSO and the frequency of extreme events may change on a warming planet. Just a couple of years ago an extreme El Niño with major global climatic consequences occurred and one may wonder when the next big one will arrive.

The Symposium was followed by a 2-day writing session for authors of an upcoming AGU Monograph titled, “ENSO in a Changing Climate”.

Symposium Program

29-31 January 2019, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) Lecture Theatre, Hobart TASMANIA.

(Scientific committee: Wenju Cai, Mike McPhaden, Agus Santoso. Organising committee: Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Ben Ng, Leonie Wyld)

Tuesday 29 January

9.30-10.45   Introduction | Chair: Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso (notetaker: Ben Ng)

9.30: Opening | Wenju Cai & Leonie Wyld

9.40: The impact of global warming on ENSO is clearer now than ever before (keynote) | Scott Power

10.10: El Niño and marine heatwaves (flash) | Neil Holbrook

10.15: Pan-tropical climate interactions | Wenju Cai

10.45-11.15 Morning tea

11.15-13.00 Warm Water Volume and Stochastic Wind | Chair: Xuebin Zhang & Malte Stuecker (notetaker: Catherine Ganter)

11.15: Update on the Evolving 2018-19 El Nino | Mike McPhaden

11.35: Evolution of ocean heat content related to ENSO | Kevin Trenberth

11.55: Diabatic Contributions to Warm Water Volume Variability over ENSO Events | Ryan Holmes

12.15: The Nature of the Stochastic Wind Forcing of ENSO | AntoniettaCapotondi

12.35: A simple theory for the modulation of Tropical Instability Waves by ENSO and the Annual Cycle | Julien Boucharel

13.00-14.00 Lunch

14.00-15.30 ENSO Prediction | Chair: Mat Collins & Jong-Seong Kug (notetaker: Giovanni Liguori)

14.00: Multi-year prediction of ENSO | Jing-Jia Luo

14.20: ENSO predictability in empirical models of tropical air-sea interactions | Harun Rashid

14.40: Impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface conditions on the predictive skill of ENSO (flash) |Jun-Young Choi

14.45: A high-latitude North Pacific trigger for extreme El Niño events | Hyun-Su Jo

15.05: Remarks by Blair Trewin (AR6 chapter 2 lead author)

15.15: Discussions

15.30-16.00 Afternoon tea

16.00-18.30 Factors affecting ENSO evolution | Chair: Dietmar Dommenget & Janet Sprintall (notetaker: Alex Sen Gupta)

16.00: The role of Indonesian Throughflow in the onset and development of the latest El Niño events | Dongliang Yuan

16.20: Some Issues Related to Inter-basin Teleconnection between Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO | Tim Li

16.40: Freshwater flux and ocean chlorophyll produce nonlinear feedbacks on ENSO in the tropical Pacific | Rong-Hua Zhang

17.00: Synergy of satellite and in-situ wind measurements to support ENSO research and TPOS2020 | Tong (Tony) Lee (introduction by Antonietta Capotondi)

17.20: Discussion

18.30: Close

19.30: Symposium dinner – Mezethes Greek Taverna, 77 Salamanca Pl, Battery Point TAS 7004.

Wednesday 30 January

9.00-10.45 ENSO Dynamics | Chair: Antonietta Capotondi & Rong-Hua Zhang (notetaker: Christina Karamperidou)

9.00: Dynamic Factors for ENSO’s Amplitude, Periodicity, Phase-locking, Asymmetry and Rectification onto Mean State (keynote) | Fei-Fei Jin

9.30: Nonlinear recharge oscillator model and its application | Soon-Il An

9.50: The relationship between the Pacific Meridional Mode, Central Pacific ENSO, and Pacific decadal variability | Malte Stuecker

10.10: Separating the North and South Pacific Meridional Modes contributions to ENSO and tropical decadal variability | Giovanni Liguori

10.30: Role of long-term Indian Ocean warming in modulating tropical atmospheric circulation (flash)| Shreya Dhame

10.35: Decomposition of the Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies by using MEEMD, is that worth it? (flash)| Arnold Sullivan

10.45-11.15 Morning tea

11.15-12.45 Low-frequency variability | Chair: Jing-Jia Luo & Neil Holbrook (notetaker: Ryan Holmes)

11.15: Tropical decadal variability induced by rectification of ENSO | Jong-Seong Kug

11.35: The Orthogonal PDO and ENSO Indices | Xianyao Chen

11.55: East Wind Anomaly in the Tropical and Mid-latitude Pacific in the Past Three Decades

| Xichen Li

12.15: What’s the role of Atlantic trans-basin forcing in Pacific decadal variability? | Kewei Lyu

12. 35: Discussion

12.45-13.45 Lunch

13.45-15.45 ENSO under change and associated uncertainties | Chair: Scott Power & Guojian Wang (notetaker: Sarah Perry)

13.45: Recent progress in understanding ENSO SST response to greenhouse warming | Wenju Cai

14.15: Intensification of ENSO-induced rainfall variability in the slow oceanic response to global warming | Xiao-Tong Zheng

14.35: Changes of ENSO variability in the future climate of the Pacific | Christophe Menkes

14.55: Tropical Pacific climate change in the framework of the ENSO Recharge-Oscillator | Dietmar Dommenget

15.15: Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs | Neil Holbrook

15.35: Discussion

15.45-16.15   Afternoon tea

16.15-18.30 ENSO and greenhouse warming | Chair: Tim Li & Yun Yang (notetaker: Peter van Rensch)

16.15: Linking past, present and future ENSO variability (keynote) | Axel Timmermann

16.45: Weakened Atlantic Niño-Pacific Teleconnection under Greenhouse Warming | Fan Jia

17.05: Inter-basin SST gradient change responsible for the weakening of the North Tropical Atlantic-ENSO relationship due to global warming | Yoo-Geun Ham

17.25: Can the Arctic sea ice loss induce an El Nino-like warming? | Sang-Wook Yeh

17.45: Key Role of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the Changes of the Aleutian Low Mean-state and Variability under Greenhouse Warming | Bolan Gan

18.05: Discussion

18.30: Close

Thursday 31 January

9.00-10.30 ENSO impacts and their changing nature | Chair: Kevin Trenberth & Yoo-Geun Ham (notetaker: Agus Santoso)

9.00: Multi-resolution hierarchical modeling of ENSO flavors and their impacts (keynote) | Christina Karamperidou

9.30: Regional changes to the remote impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation | Sarah Perry

9.50: Mechanisms for Changing ENSO-Rainfall Teleconnections in the Tropics | Mat Collins

10.10: Understanding the relationship of ENSO and SAM in the present and future climate | Eun-Pa Lim

10.30-11.00 Morning tea

11.00-12.30 Atmospheric teleconnection processes | Chair: Sang-Wook Yeh & Julien Boucharel (notetaker: Shreya Dhame)

11.00: ENSO and tropical cyclone variability (keynote)| Johnny Chan

11.30: The inconsistent teleconnection of strong El Nino events to east Australian spring rainfall | Peter van Rensch

11.50: ENSO seasonality and implications for rainfall teleconnections in CMIP models | Andrea Taschetto

12.10: North Tropical Atlantic climate variability and model biases | Yun Yang

12.30-13.30 Lunch

13.30-15.30 Indo-Pacific teleconnection and oceanic impact | Chair: Tony Lee & Dong-Liang Yuan (notetaker: Janet Sprintall)

13.30: Pacific influences on the meridional temperature transport of the Indian Ocean | Ming Feng

13.50: Contributions of seasonality, remote forcing and local forcing to the mean state of the Indonesian seas | Océane Richet

14.10: ENSO-related Global Ocean Heat Content Variations | Xuebin Zhang

14.30: El Niño revisited: the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the world’s largest tuna fisheries | Christophe Menkes

14.50: Discussion

15.00: TPOS2020 Discussion convened by Tony Lee & Shayne McGregor

15.30: Close

15.30 Afternoon tea

More about CSHOR ENSO research

Find out more about CSHOR ENSO and the IOD research on the project page.