ENSO Science Symposium

Fishing fleet in Hobart, Tasmania (Photographer : David McClenaghan)

January 29 – February 2, 2019

CSIRO Auditorium
Castray Esplanade,
Hobart TASMANIA

(Includes a 2 day writing session for ENSO book authors on February 1 – 2)

Abstracts closed.

Successful abstract titles listed below. Full program including abstracts published here by mid-December, 2018.

Purpose

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly impacts our climate, ecosystems, economy and society on a global scale. An improved understanding of its dynamics, evolution, predictability, teleconnection and impact in a climate that is undergoing change is critical to manage risks and resources.  The character of ENSO and the frequency of extreme events may change on a warming planet. Just a couple of years ago an extreme El Niño with major global climatic consequences occurred and one may wonder when the next big one will arrive.  The field of ENSO research is rapidly progressing and it is necessary to re-assess the state of ENSO science.  How reliable are our modelling and observational tools used to monitor, predict, and study ENSO?  What advances do we need to improve projections of ENSO in a changing climate?

To discuss these and other issues, the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR) plans to gather ENSO experts and students over a 3-day workshop, followed by a 2-day working-group meeting of authors involved in a book project on ENSO.

CSHOR is a collaborative research partnership between QNLM, CSIRO, UNSW and the University of Tasmania.

Logistics

Lunch, morning and afternoon tea, and one symposium dinner are included with the registration. Attendees are expected to book their own accommodation. Summer is a busy time of year in Hobart, therefore, it is recommended you book as soon as practical. There are many hotels within walking distance of CSIRO. The City of Hobart Travel Centre website may be helpful.

Committees

Scientific committee: Wenju Cai, Mike McPhaden, Agus Santoso

Organising committee: Leonie Wyld, Guojian Wang, Agus Santoso, Ben Ng

Contacts

Registration closed on 30th October 2018. Please direct queries to Agus Santoso (a.santoso@unsw.edu.au) or Leonie Wyld (leonie.wyld@csiro.au).

Successful abstracts

Successful abstracts are listed below. The Symposium program will be published by mid-December. The program will commence at 9.30 am on Tuesday January 29 and conclude at 3.30 pm on Thursday January 31. The book writing session on February 1 to 2 is for authors currently writing an AGU monograph.

Author/s (last name order, presenter in bold type)

Presentation Title

Affiliation/s

Akande S.O.1, Osinowo A.A2, Eresanya E.O3, Jejelola O.F4, Apenuwa O.S5 Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation of Climate Change and ENSO Influences In the Gulf-Of-Guinea Coast

 

1Department of Meteorology and Climate Sciences Centre for Space Research and Applications (CESRA), Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria; 2Department of Marine Science and Technology, School of Earth and Mineral Sciences Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria; 3Department of Meteorology and Climate Sciences, School of Earth and Mineral Sciences Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria; 4School of Environmental Technology, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria; 5Department of Urban and Regional Planning, School of Environmental Technology Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
Robert J. Allan1, Joëlle Gergis2,3, Rosanne D. D’Arrigo4 Placing the 2014–2016 ‘protracted’ El Niño episode into a long-term context 1 Met Office Hadley Centre, UK; 2School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia; 3 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Melbourne, Australia; 4 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, USA.
Soon-Il An and Soong Ki Kim

 

Nonlinear recharge oscillator model and its application Yonsei University, S. Korea
Julien Boucharel1 and Fei-Fei Jin1,2

 

A simple theory for the modulation of Tropical Instability Waves by ENSO and the Annual Cycle

 

1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA; 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, Beijing Climate Center, Chinese Meteorological Agency, Beijing, China
Wenju Cai
Recent progress in understanding ENSO SST response to greenhouse warming Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania Australia
Antonietta Capotondi1,2 and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh1,2 The Nature of the Stochastic Wind Forcing of ENSO 1University of Colorado/CIRES, USA; 2NOAA/ESRL:PSD, USA.
Johnny Chan
ENSO and tropical cyclone variability

City University of Hong Kong

Xianyao Chen  1 and J. M. Wallace2 The Orthogonal PDO and ENSO Indices

 

1Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China; 2Department of the Atmospheric Science, University of Washington, USA.

Jun-Young Choi1, Yoo-Geun Ham1, Eun-Pa Lim2 and Harry H. Hendon2

 

Impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface conditions on the predictive skill of ENSO

1Chonnam National University, Republic of Korea; 2Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

Mat Collins1, Marion Saint-Lu1, Alex Todd1, Rob Chadwick2, Hugo Lambert1, Mechanisms for Changing ENSO-Rainfall Teleconnections in the Tropics 1University of Exeter, UK; 2Met Office, UK.
Shreya Dhame1,2, Katrin Meissner1,2, Andrea Taschetto1,2, Agus Santoso1,2 Role of long-term Indian Ocean warming in modulating tropical atmospheric circulation

 

1Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Australia; 2ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Australia.
Dietmar Dommenget and Yanhan Yu Tropical Pacific climate change in the framework of the ENSO Recharge-Oscillator Monash University, Australia.
Cyril Dutheil1, Bador M.2, Lengaigne M.3, Lefevre J.1, Jourdain N.4, Jullien S.5,Vialard J.3, Peltier A.6, and Menkes C.1 Changes of ENSO variability in the future climate of the Pacific 1IRD, LOCEAN-ENTROPIE, Nouméa, New Caledonia; 2Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, School of BEES, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; 3 LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC, Université Paris 06, CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France; 4 Univ. Grenoble Alpes / CNRS / IRD / G-INP, IGE, Grenoble, France; 5 Ifremer, Univ. Brest, CNRS, IRD, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), IUEM, Plouzané, France; 6 Météo France, New Caledonia
Bolan Gan Key Role of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the Changes of the Aleutian Low Mean-state and Variability under Greenhouse Warming Physical Oceanography Laboratory
Ocean University of China
Felicity S. Graham1, Andrew T. Wittenberg2, Jaclyn N. Brown3, Simon J. Marsland4, Neil J. Holbrook1,5 Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs 1Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; 2 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA; 3 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; 4 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; 5 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Hobart, TAS, Australia
Yoo-Geun Ham1, Jun-Young Choi1, and Shayne McGregor2

 

Inter-basin SST gradient change responsible for the weakening of the North Tropical Atlantic-ENSO relationship due to global warming 1Department of Oceanography, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea; 2School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
Neil J. Holbrook1,2, Alex Sen Gupta3,4, Eric C. J. Oliver5, Alistair J. Hobday6, Danielle C. Claar7 El Niño and marine heatwaves (short presentation)

 

1 Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; 2 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; 3 Climate Change Research Centre, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 4 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 5 Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; 6 CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; 7 Department of Biology, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Maurice F. V. Huguenin-Virchaux1, Ryan M. Holmes2,3 and Matthew H. England2 Diabatic Contributions to Warm Water Volume Variability over ENSO Events 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland; 2Climate Change Research Centre and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Australia; 3School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Australia

 

Fan Jia1 and Wenju Cai2

 

Weakened Atlantic Niño-Pacific Teleconnection under Greenhouse Warming 1Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences; 2Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Fei-Fei Jin, Han-Ching Chen, Sen Zhao, Michiya Hayashi

 

Dynamic Factors for ENSO’s Amplitude, Periodicity, Phase-locking, Asymmetry and Rectification onto Mean State

 

University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA
Hyun-Su Jo1, Wenju Cai1,4, Jae-Heung Park2, and Yoo-Geun Ham3

 

A high-latitude North Pacific trigger for extreme El Niño events 1CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia; 2International Pacific Research Centre and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii; 3Department of Oceanography, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Republic of Korea; 4Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Christina Karamperidou Multi-resolution hierarchical modeling of ENSO flavors and their impacts

 

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, USA
Jong-Seong Kug, and Geonil Kim Tropical decadal variability induced by rectification of ENSO Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang, Korea
Tong Lee1 and Mike McPhaden2 Mixed-layer heat budget associated with the 2015-16 El Niño  

1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, USA; 2Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA.

 

Matthieu Lengaigne

 

Western Pacific Oceanic Heat Content: A Better Predictor of La Niña Than of El Niño

 

Institut de Recherches pour le Développement (IRD), Laboratoire d’Océanographie – Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), France
Michelle L. L’Heureux1, Michael K. Tippett2, Arun Kumar1, and Emily Becker1 Tendency of Niño-3.4 Predictions initialized in the Boreal Spring

 

1NOAA Climate Prediction Center, USA; 2Columbia University, USA.
Tim Li Some Issues Related to Inter-basin Teleconnection between Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA
Xichen Li East Wind Anomaly in the Tropical And Mid-latitude Pacific In the Past Three Decades Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Eun-Pa Lim, Pandora Hope and Harry H. Hendon Understanding the relationship of ENSO and SAM in the present and future climate Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Jing-Jia Luo, Hanh Nguyen, Harry Hendon, Oscar Alves, Guoqiang Liu, Nick Dunstone, Craig MacLachlan Multi-year prediction of ENSO Nanjing University of Science Information and Technology, China; Australian Bureau of Meteorology; UK Met Office.
Kewei Lyu1 and Jin-Yi Yu2 What’s the role of Atlantic trans-basin forcing in Pacific decadal variability? 1Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; 2Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
M. J. McPhaden Update on the Evolving 2018-19 El Nino

 

NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, USA
Jie Ma1,2, Ming Feng2,3 , Sloyan Bernadette M.3,4, Jian Lan1 Pacific influences on the meridional temperature transport of the Indian Ocean 1Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Centre of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, and College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; 2CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia; 3Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; 4CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Christophe Menkes1, Aurore Receveur2, Simon Nicol3, Laura Tremblay-Boyer2, Neville Smith2, Valérie Allain2, Inna Senina4 and Patrick Lehodey4 El Niño revisited: the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the world’s largest tuna fisheries 1ENTROPIE, IRD, Nouméa, New Caledonia; 2 FAME SPC/CPS Nouméa, New Caledonia; 3 Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, Australia; 4 CLS, Département Ecosystemes Marins, Toulouse, France
Sarah Perry1,2,3, Shayne McGregor2,3, Alex Sen Gupta1,3, Matthew England1,3 and Nicola Maher4 Regional changes to the remote impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation 1University of New South Wales, Australia; 2Monash University, Victoria, Australia; 3ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Australia; 4Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.
Scott Power, F. Delage, C. Chung, S. Perry, and S. McGregor, W. Cai and A. Santoso The impact of global warming on ENSO is clearer now than ever before Australian Bureau of Metrology; CSIRO; University of New South Wales, Australia.
Harun Rashid
ENSO predictability in empirical models of tropical air-sea interactions

 

Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia.
Océane Richet Contributions of seasonality, remote forcing and local forcing to the mean state of the Indonesian seas Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Regina R. Rodrigues ENSO bimodality and extremes

 

Coordenadoria de Oceanografia – CFMUniversidade Federal de Santa Catarina
Malte F. Stuecker
The relationship between the Pacific Meridional Mode, Central Pacific ENSO, and Pacific decadal variability
IBS Centre for Climate Physics, Busan, Republic of Korea
Sullivan Arnold1; Luo Jing-Jia2; Li Ziguang3; Po-Nan Li4; Cai, Wen-Ju1; Wilson, Louise5 Review on ENSO: A Method for Quantifying Nonlinear Interactions Hidden in SST 1CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Melbourne, Australia; 2School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; 3College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; 4Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; 5Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia.
Andrea Taschetto

 

ENSO seasonality and implications for rainfall teleconnections in CMIP models

 

Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Australia.
Axel Timmermann
Linking past, present and future ENSO variability IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea
Kevin E. Trenberth1 and Lijing Cheng2 Evolution of ocean heat content related to ENSO 1 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA; 2 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Vladyslav Tymofeyev ENSO and the regional climates in the warmer world

 

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Kiev, Ukraine
Peter van Rensch1,2,3, Julie Arblaster1,4,5, Ailie Gallant1, Wenju Cai2,7, Neville Nicholls1, Paul Durack6 The inconsistent teleconnection of strong El Nino events to east Australian spring rainfall 1Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia; 2 CSIRO, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia; 3 Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science, Australia; 4National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA; 5Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australia; 6 Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA; 7Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Quran Wu1,2, Xuebin Zhang1, John A. Church3 and Jianyu Hu2 ENSO-related Global Ocean Heat Content Variations 1CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, CSHOR, Hobart, Australia; 2State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, China; 3Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Yun Yang, Shang-Ping Xie, Lixin Wu, Yu Kosaka, Jianping Li, and Yan Du ENSO forced and local variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole

 

College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, China
Sang-Wook Yeh1, Hyerim Kim2, and Soon-IL An1 Can the Arctic sea ice loss induce an El Nino-like warming?

 

1Hanyang University, ERICA, Korea; 2Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea.
Dongliang Yuan1, Xiang Li1, Zheng Wang1, Yao Li1, Jing Wang1, Ya Yang1, Xiaoyue Hu1, Adhitya Kusuma Wardana2, Dewi Surinati2, Adi Purwandana2, Mochamad Furqon Azis Ismail2, Praditya Avianto2, Dirhamsyah2, Zainal Arifin2 The role of Indonesian Throughflow in the onset and development of the latest El Niño events 1 Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China; 2Research Center for Oceanography, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Jakarta, Indonesia.
Rong-Hua Zhang Freshwater flux and ocean chlorophyll produce nonlinear feedbacks on ENSO in the tropical Pacific Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, China.
Xiao-Tong Zheng Intensification of ENSO-induced rainfall variability in the slow oceanic response to global warming

 

Physical Oceanography Laboratory, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.