CSHOR ENSO Science Symposium
CSHOR gathered over 55 ENSO experts and students in Hobart over a 3-day symposium to address important scientific questions regarding the reliability of current modelling and observational tools, and what advances are required to improve projections of ENSO in a changing climate. The presentations are listed below. A meeting report titled, ‘Understanding ENSO in a Changing Climate’, is published on EOS.ORG – Earth & Space Science News at this link.
The field of ENSO research is rapidly progressing and it is necessary to re-assess the state of ENSO science. ENSO significantly impacts our climate, ecosystems, economy and society on a global scale. An improved understanding of its dynamics, evolution, predictability, teleconnection and impact in a climate that is undergoing change is critical to manage risks and resources. The character of ENSO and the frequency of extreme events may change on a warming planet. Just a couple of years ago an extreme El Niño with major global climatic consequences occurred and one may wonder when the next big one will arrive.
The Symposium was followed by a 2-day writing session for authors of an upcoming AGU Monograph titled, “ENSO in a Changing Climate”.
Symposium Program
29-31 January 2019, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) Lecture Theatre, Hobart TASMANIA.
(Scientific committee: Wenju Cai, Mike McPhaden, Agus Santoso. Organising committee: Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Ben Ng, Leonie Wyld)
Tuesday 29 January
9.30-10.45 Introduction | Chair: Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso (notetaker: Ben Ng)
9.30: Opening | Wenju Cai & Leonie Wyld
9.40: The impact of global warming on ENSO is clearer now than ever before (keynote) | Scott Power
10.10: El Niño and marine heatwaves (flash) | Neil Holbrook
10.15: Pan-tropical climate interactions | Wenju Cai
10.45-11.15 Morning tea
11.15-13.00 Warm Water Volume and Stochastic Wind | Chair: Xuebin Zhang & Malte Stuecker (notetaker: Catherine Ganter)
11.15: Update on the Evolving 2018-19 El Nino | Mike McPhaden
11.35: Evolution of ocean heat content related to ENSO | Kevin Trenberth
11.55: Diabatic Contributions to Warm Water Volume Variability over ENSO Events | Ryan Holmes
12.15: The Nature of the Stochastic Wind Forcing of ENSO | AntoniettaCapotondi
12.35: A simple theory for the modulation of Tropical Instability Waves by ENSO and the Annual Cycle | Julien Boucharel
13.00-14.00 Lunch
14.00-15.30 ENSO Prediction | Chair: Mat Collins & Jong-Seong Kug (notetaker: Giovanni Liguori)
14.00: Multi-year prediction of ENSO | Jing-Jia Luo
14.20: ENSO predictability in empirical models of tropical air-sea interactions | Harun Rashid
14.40: Impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface conditions on the predictive skill of ENSO (flash) |Jun-Young Choi
14.45: A high-latitude North Pacific trigger for extreme El Niño events | Hyun-Su Jo
15.05: Remarks by Blair Trewin (AR6 chapter 2 lead author)
15.15: Discussions
15.30-16.00 Afternoon tea
16.00-18.30 Factors affecting ENSO evolution | Chair: Dietmar Dommenget & Janet Sprintall (notetaker: Alex Sen Gupta)
16.00: The role of Indonesian Throughflow in the onset and development of the latest El Niño events | Dongliang Yuan
16.20: Some Issues Related to Inter-basin Teleconnection between Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO | Tim Li
16.40: Freshwater flux and ocean chlorophyll produce nonlinear feedbacks on ENSO in the tropical Pacific | Rong-Hua Zhang
17.00: Synergy of satellite and in-situ wind measurements to support ENSO research and TPOS2020 | Tong (Tony) Lee (introduction by Antonietta Capotondi)
17.20: Discussion
18.30: Close
19.30: Symposium dinner – Mezethes Greek Taverna, 77 Salamanca Pl, Battery Point TAS 7004.
Wednesday 30 January
9.00-10.45 ENSO Dynamics | Chair: Antonietta Capotondi & Rong-Hua Zhang (notetaker: Christina Karamperidou)
9.00: Dynamic Factors for ENSO’s Amplitude, Periodicity, Phase-locking, Asymmetry and Rectification onto Mean State (keynote) | Fei-Fei Jin
9.30: Nonlinear recharge oscillator model and its application | Soon-Il An
9.50: The relationship between the Pacific Meridional Mode, Central Pacific ENSO, and Pacific decadal variability | Malte Stuecker
10.10: Separating the North and South Pacific Meridional Modes contributions to ENSO and tropical decadal variability | Giovanni Liguori
10.30: Role of long-term Indian Ocean warming in modulating tropical atmospheric circulation (flash)| Shreya Dhame
10.35: Decomposition of the Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies by using MEEMD, is that worth it? (flash)| Arnold Sullivan
10.45-11.15 Morning tea
11.15-12.45 Low-frequency variability | Chair: Jing-Jia Luo & Neil Holbrook (notetaker: Ryan Holmes)
11.15: Tropical decadal variability induced by rectification of ENSO | Jong-Seong Kug
11.35: The Orthogonal PDO and ENSO Indices | Xianyao Chen
11.55: East Wind Anomaly in the Tropical and Mid-latitude Pacific in the Past Three Decades
| Xichen Li
12.15: What’s the role of Atlantic trans-basin forcing in Pacific decadal variability? | Kewei Lyu
- 35: Discussion
12.45-13.45 Lunch
13.45-15.45 ENSO under change and associated uncertainties | Chair: Scott Power & Guojian Wang (notetaker: Sarah Perry)
13.45: Recent progress in understanding ENSO SST response to greenhouse warming | Wenju Cai
14.15: Intensification of ENSO-induced rainfall variability in the slow oceanic response to global warming | Xiao-Tong Zheng
14.35: Changes of ENSO variability in the future climate of the Pacific | Christophe Menkes
14.55: Tropical Pacific climate change in the framework of the ENSO Recharge-Oscillator | Dietmar Dommenget
15.15: Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs | Neil Holbrook
15.35: Discussion
15.45-16.15 Afternoon tea
16.15-18.30 ENSO and greenhouse warming | Chair: Tim Li & Yun Yang (notetaker: Peter van Rensch)
16.15: Linking past, present and future ENSO variability (keynote) | Axel Timmermann
16.45: Weakened Atlantic Niño-Pacific Teleconnection under Greenhouse Warming | Fan Jia
17.05: Inter-basin SST gradient change responsible for the weakening of the North Tropical Atlantic-ENSO relationship due to global warming | Yoo-Geun Ham
17.25: Can the Arctic sea ice loss induce an El Nino-like warming? | Sang-Wook Yeh
17.45: Key Role of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the Changes of the Aleutian Low Mean-state and Variability under Greenhouse Warming | Bolan Gan
18.05: Discussion
18.30: Close
Thursday 31 January
9.00-10.30 ENSO impacts and their changing nature | Chair: Kevin Trenberth & Yoo-Geun Ham (notetaker: Agus Santoso)
9.00: Multi-resolution hierarchical modeling of ENSO flavors and their impacts (keynote) | Christina Karamperidou
9.30: Regional changes to the remote impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation | Sarah Perry
9.50: Mechanisms for Changing ENSO-Rainfall Teleconnections in the Tropics | Mat Collins
10.10: Understanding the relationship of ENSO and SAM in the present and future climate | Eun-Pa Lim
10.30-11.00 Morning tea
11.00-12.30 Atmospheric teleconnection processes | Chair: Sang-Wook Yeh & Julien Boucharel (notetaker: Shreya Dhame)
11.00: ENSO and tropical cyclone variability (keynote)| Johnny Chan
11.30: The inconsistent teleconnection of strong El Nino events to east Australian spring rainfall | Peter van Rensch
11.50: ENSO seasonality and implications for rainfall teleconnections in CMIP models | Andrea Taschetto
12.10: North Tropical Atlantic climate variability and model biases | Yun Yang
12.30-13.30 Lunch
13.30-15.30 Indo-Pacific teleconnection and oceanic impact | Chair: Tony Lee & Dong-Liang Yuan (notetaker: Janet Sprintall)
13.30: Pacific influences on the meridional temperature transport of the Indian Ocean | Ming Feng
13.50: Contributions of seasonality, remote forcing and local forcing to the mean state of the Indonesian seas | Océane Richet
14.10: ENSO-related Global Ocean Heat Content Variations | Xuebin Zhang
14.30: El Niño revisited: the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the world’s largest tuna fisheries | Christophe Menkes
14.50: Discussion
15.00: TPOS2020 Discussion convened by Tony Lee & Shayne McGregor
15.30: Close
15.30 Afternoon tea
More about CSHOR ENSO research
Find out more about CSHOR ENSO and the IOD research on the project page.